412 lines
14 KiB
Rust
412 lines
14 KiB
Rust
use crate::{BridgeInfo, BridgeInfoType};
|
|
use lox_library::proto::trust_promotion::UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL;
|
|
use nalgebra::DVector;
|
|
use statrs::distribution::{Continuous, ContinuousCDF, MultivariateNormal, Normal};
|
|
use statrs::statistics::Statistics;
|
|
use std::{
|
|
cmp::min,
|
|
collections::{BTreeMap, HashSet},
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
/// Provides a function for predicting which countries block this bridge
|
|
pub trait Analyzer {
|
|
/// Evaluate open-entry bridge. Returns true if blocked, false otherwise.
|
|
fn stage_one(
|
|
&self,
|
|
confidence: f64,
|
|
bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool;
|
|
|
|
/// Evaluate invite-only bridge without positive reports. Return true if
|
|
/// blocked, false otherwise.
|
|
fn stage_two(
|
|
&self,
|
|
confidence: f64,
|
|
bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool;
|
|
|
|
/// Evaluate invite-only bridge with positive reports. Return true if
|
|
/// blocked, false otherwise.
|
|
fn stage_three(
|
|
&self,
|
|
confidence: f64,
|
|
bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
positive_reports: &[u32],
|
|
positive_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/// Accepts an analyzer, information about a bridge, and a confidence value.
|
|
/// Returns a set of country codes where the bridge is believed to be blocked.
|
|
pub fn blocked_in(
|
|
analyzer: &dyn Analyzer,
|
|
bridge_info: &BridgeInfo,
|
|
confidence: f64,
|
|
date: u32,
|
|
min_historical_days: u32,
|
|
max_historical_days: u32,
|
|
) -> HashSet<String> {
|
|
let mut blocked_in = HashSet::<String>::new();
|
|
let today = date;
|
|
for (country, info) in &bridge_info.info_by_country {
|
|
let age = today - info.first_seen;
|
|
if info.blocked {
|
|
// Assume bridges never become unblocked
|
|
blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
|
|
} else {
|
|
// Get today's values
|
|
let new_map_binding = BTreeMap::<BridgeInfoType, u32>::new();
|
|
// TODO: Evaluate on yesterday if we don't have data for today?
|
|
let today_info = match info.info_by_day.get(&today) {
|
|
Some(v) => v,
|
|
None => &new_map_binding,
|
|
};
|
|
let bridge_ips_today = match today_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::BridgeIps) {
|
|
Some(&v) => v,
|
|
None => 0,
|
|
};
|
|
let negative_reports_today = match today_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::NegativeReports) {
|
|
Some(&v) => v,
|
|
None => 0,
|
|
};
|
|
let positive_reports_today = match today_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::PositiveReports) {
|
|
Some(&v) => v,
|
|
None => 0,
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
let num_days = min(age, max_historical_days);
|
|
|
|
// Get time series for last num_days
|
|
let mut bridge_ips = vec![0; num_days as usize];
|
|
let mut negative_reports = vec![0; num_days as usize];
|
|
let mut positive_reports = vec![0; num_days as usize];
|
|
|
|
for i in 0..num_days {
|
|
let date = today - num_days + i - 1;
|
|
let new_map_binding = BTreeMap::<BridgeInfoType, u32>::new();
|
|
let day_info = match info.info_by_day.get(&date) {
|
|
Some(v) => v,
|
|
None => &new_map_binding,
|
|
};
|
|
bridge_ips[i as usize] = match day_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::BridgeIps) {
|
|
Some(&v) => v,
|
|
None => 0,
|
|
};
|
|
negative_reports[i as usize] = match day_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::NegativeReports)
|
|
{
|
|
Some(&v) => v,
|
|
None => 0,
|
|
};
|
|
positive_reports[i as usize] = match day_info.get(&BridgeInfoType::PositiveReports)
|
|
{
|
|
Some(&v) => v,
|
|
None => 0,
|
|
};
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Evaluate using appropriate stage based on age of the bridge
|
|
if age < UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL || age < min_historical_days {
|
|
// open-entry bridge and/or not enough days of
|
|
// historical days for stages 2 and 3
|
|
if analyzer.stage_one(
|
|
confidence,
|
|
&bridge_ips,
|
|
bridge_ips_today,
|
|
&negative_reports,
|
|
negative_reports_today,
|
|
) {
|
|
blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
|
|
}
|
|
} else if info.first_pr.is_none()
|
|
|| today < info.first_pr.unwrap() + min_historical_days
|
|
{
|
|
// invite-only bridge without min_historical_days of
|
|
// historical data on positive reports
|
|
if analyzer.stage_two(
|
|
confidence,
|
|
&bridge_ips,
|
|
bridge_ips_today,
|
|
&negative_reports,
|
|
negative_reports_today,
|
|
) {
|
|
blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
|
|
}
|
|
} else {
|
|
// invite-only bridge that has min_historical_days or
|
|
// more of historical data since the first positive report
|
|
if analyzer.stage_three(
|
|
confidence,
|
|
&bridge_ips,
|
|
bridge_ips_today,
|
|
&negative_reports,
|
|
negative_reports_today,
|
|
&positive_reports,
|
|
positive_reports_today,
|
|
) {
|
|
blocked_in.insert(country.to_string());
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
blocked_in
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Analyzer implementations
|
|
|
|
/// Dummy example that never thinks bridges are blocked
|
|
pub struct ExampleAnalyzer {}
|
|
|
|
impl Analyzer for ExampleAnalyzer {
|
|
fn stage_one(
|
|
&self,
|
|
_confidence: f64,
|
|
_bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
_bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
_negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
_negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool {
|
|
false
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
fn stage_two(
|
|
&self,
|
|
_confidence: f64,
|
|
_bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
_bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
_negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
_negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool {
|
|
false
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
fn stage_three(
|
|
&self,
|
|
_confidence: f64,
|
|
_bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
_bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
_negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
_negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
_positive_reports: &[u32],
|
|
_positive_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool {
|
|
false
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/// Model data as multivariate normal distribution
|
|
pub struct NormalAnalyzer {
|
|
max_threshold: u32,
|
|
scaling_factor: f64,
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
impl NormalAnalyzer {
|
|
pub fn new(max_threshold: u32, scaling_factor: f64) -> Self {
|
|
Self {
|
|
max_threshold,
|
|
scaling_factor,
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
|
|
/// Evaluate open-entry bridge based on only today's data
|
|
fn stage_one(
|
|
&self,
|
|
_confidence: f64,
|
|
_bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
_negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool {
|
|
negative_reports_today > self.max_threshold
|
|
|| f64::from(negative_reports_today) > self.scaling_factor * f64::from(bridge_ips_today)
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/// Evaluate invite-only bridge based on historical data
|
|
fn stage_two(
|
|
&self,
|
|
confidence: f64,
|
|
bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool {
|
|
assert!(bridge_ips.len() >= UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL as usize);
|
|
assert_eq!(bridge_ips.len(), negative_reports.len());
|
|
|
|
let alpha = 1.0 - confidence;
|
|
|
|
// Convert to f64 for stats
|
|
let bridge_ips_f64 = &bridge_ips.iter().map(|n| *n as f64).collect::<Vec<f64>>();
|
|
let negative_reports_f64 = &negative_reports
|
|
.iter()
|
|
.map(|n| *n as f64)
|
|
.collect::<Vec<f64>>();
|
|
|
|
// Evaluate based on negative reports
|
|
let negative_reports_mean = negative_reports_f64.mean();
|
|
let negative_reports_sd = negative_reports_f64.std_dev();
|
|
|
|
// Only use CCDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
|
|
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean {
|
|
let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd);
|
|
if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
|
|
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
|
|
if (1.0 - nr_normal.unwrap().cdf(negative_reports_today as f64)) < alpha {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
} else {
|
|
// If the standard deviation is 0, we need another option.
|
|
// Consider the bridge blocked negative reports increase by
|
|
// more than 1 after a long static period. (Note that the
|
|
// mean is the exact value because we had no deviation.)
|
|
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + 1.0 {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Evaluate based on bridge stats
|
|
let bridge_ips_mean = bridge_ips_f64.mean();
|
|
let bridge_ips_sd = bridge_ips_f64.std_dev();
|
|
|
|
// Only use CDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
|
|
if (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean {
|
|
let bip_normal = Normal::new(bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd);
|
|
if bridge_ips_sd > 0.0 {
|
|
if bip_normal.unwrap().cdf(bridge_ips_today as f64) < alpha {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
} else {
|
|
// If the standard deviation is 0, we need another option.
|
|
// Consider the bridge blocked if its usage dropped by more
|
|
// than 1 bin. (Note that the mean is the exact value
|
|
// because we had no deviation.)
|
|
if (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean - 8.0 {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// If none of the tests concluded that the bridge is blocked,
|
|
// return false
|
|
false
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/// Evaluate invite-only bridge with lv3+ users submitting positive reports
|
|
fn stage_three(
|
|
&self,
|
|
confidence: f64,
|
|
bridge_ips: &[u32],
|
|
bridge_ips_today: u32,
|
|
negative_reports: &[u32],
|
|
negative_reports_today: u32,
|
|
positive_reports: &[u32],
|
|
positive_reports_today: u32,
|
|
) -> bool {
|
|
assert!(bridge_ips.len() >= UNTRUSTED_INTERVAL as usize);
|
|
assert_eq!(bridge_ips.len(), negative_reports.len());
|
|
assert_eq!(bridge_ips.len(), positive_reports.len());
|
|
|
|
let alpha = 1.0 - confidence;
|
|
|
|
// Convert to f64 for stats
|
|
let bridge_ips_f64 = &bridge_ips.iter().map(|n| *n as f64).collect::<Vec<f64>>();
|
|
let negative_reports_f64 = &negative_reports
|
|
.iter()
|
|
.map(|n| *n as f64)
|
|
.collect::<Vec<f64>>();
|
|
let positive_reports_f64 = &positive_reports
|
|
.iter()
|
|
.map(|n| *n as f64)
|
|
.collect::<Vec<f64>>();
|
|
|
|
// Evaluate based on negative reports. It is better to compute
|
|
// negative reports test first because the positive test may be
|
|
// expensive.
|
|
let negative_reports_mean = negative_reports_f64.mean();
|
|
let negative_reports_sd = negative_reports_f64.std_dev();
|
|
|
|
// Only use CCDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
|
|
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean {
|
|
let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd);
|
|
if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
|
|
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
|
|
if (1.0 - nr_normal.unwrap().cdf(negative_reports_today as f64)) < alpha {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
} else {
|
|
// Consider the bridge blocked negative reports increase by
|
|
// more than 1 after a long static period. (Note that the
|
|
// mean is the exact value because we had no deviation.)
|
|
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + 1.0 {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Evaluate based on bridge stats and positive reports.
|
|
let bridge_ips_mean = bridge_ips_f64.mean();
|
|
let positive_reports_mean = positive_reports_f64.mean();
|
|
|
|
let cov_mat = {
|
|
let x = bridge_ips_f64;
|
|
let y = positive_reports_f64;
|
|
let xx = x.covariance(x);
|
|
let xy = x.covariance(y);
|
|
let yy = y.covariance(y);
|
|
vec![xx, xy, xy, yy]
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
// Only use CDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
|
|
if (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean
|
|
|| (positive_reports_today as f64) < positive_reports_mean
|
|
{
|
|
let mvn =
|
|
MultivariateNormal::new(vec![bridge_ips_mean, positive_reports_mean], cov_mat);
|
|
if mvn.is_ok() {
|
|
let mvn = mvn.unwrap();
|
|
|
|
// Estimate the CDF by integrating the PDF by hand with step
|
|
// size 1
|
|
let mut cdf = 0.0;
|
|
for bip in 0..bridge_ips_today {
|
|
for pr in 0..positive_reports_today {
|
|
cdf += mvn.pdf(&DVector::from_vec(vec![bip as f64, pr as f64]));
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
if cdf < alpha {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
} else {
|
|
// If we have 0 standard deviation or a covariance matrix
|
|
// that is not positive definite, we need another way to
|
|
// evaluate each variable. Ignore positive reports and
|
|
// compute as in stage 2
|
|
if self.stage_two(
|
|
confidence,
|
|
bridge_ips,
|
|
bridge_ips_today,
|
|
negative_reports,
|
|
negative_reports_today,
|
|
) {
|
|
return true;
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// If none of the tests concluded that the bridge is blocked,
|
|
// return false
|
|
false
|
|
}
|
|
}
|