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troll-patrol
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vecna:analysis
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compare: vecna:659b8fa16c8439b0f6dca68057db664d948807b8
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vecna:main
vecna:analysis

2 Commits
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Author SHA1 Message Date
Vecna 659b8fa16c Refactor analysis for efficiency 2024-05-22 16:04:52 -04:00
Vecna 6b6836dbae Simulation: Give user chance to use bridges each day 2024-05-21 22:35:42 -04:00
2 changed files with 239 additions and 198 deletions
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109
src/analysis.rs
View File

@ -309,35 +309,44 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
let alpha = 1.0 - confidence; let alpha = 1.0 - confidence;
let (bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(bridge_ips); // Evaluate based on negative reports
let (negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(negative_reports); let (negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(negative_reports);
// Model negative reports separately
let bip_normal = Normal::new(bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd);
let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd); let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd);
if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
// If we have 0 standard deviation, we need another way to
// evaluate each variable
let bip_test = if bridge_ips_sd > 0.0 {
bip_normal.unwrap().cdf(bridge_ips_today as f64) < alpha
} else {
// Consider the bridge blocked if its usage dropped by more
// than 1 bin. (Note that the mean is the exact value
// because we had no deviation.)
(bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean - 8.0
};
let nr_test = if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse. // We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
(1.0 - nr_normal.unwrap().cdf(negative_reports_today as f64)) < alpha if (1.0 - nr_normal.unwrap().cdf(negative_reports_today as f64)) < alpha {
return true;
}
} else { } else {
// If the standard deviation is 0, we need another option.
// Consider the bridge blocked negative reports increase by // Consider the bridge blocked negative reports increase by
// more than 1 after a long static period. (Note that the // more than 1 after a long static period. (Note that the
// mean is the exact value because we had no deviation.) // mean is the exact value because we had no deviation.)
(negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + 1.0 if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + 1.0 {
}; return true;
}
}
// Return true if any test concluded the bridge is blocked // Evaluate based on bridge stats
bip_test || nr_test let (bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(bridge_ips);
let bip_normal = Normal::new(bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd);
if bridge_ips_sd > 0.0 {
if bip_normal.unwrap().cdf(bridge_ips_today as f64) < alpha {
return true;
}
} else {
// If the standard deviation is 0, we need another option.
// Consider the bridge blocked if its usage dropped by more
// than 1 bin. (Note that the mean is the exact value
// because we had no deviation.)
if (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean - 8.0 {
return true;
}
}
// If none of the tests concluded that the bridge is blocked,
// return false
false
} }
/// Evaluate invite-only bridge with lv3+ users submitting positive reports /// Evaluate invite-only bridge with lv3+ users submitting positive reports
@ -357,19 +366,29 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
let alpha = 1.0 - confidence; let alpha = 1.0 - confidence;
// Model bridge IPs and positive reports with multivariate // Evaluate based on negative reports. It is better to compute
// normal distribution // negative reports test first because the positive test may be
let (mean_vec, cov_mat) = Self::stats(&[bridge_ips, positive_reports]); // expensive.
let mvn = MultivariateNormal::new(mean_vec, cov_mat);
// Model negative reports separately
let (negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(negative_reports); let (negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(negative_reports);
let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd); let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd);
if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
if (1.0 - nr_normal.unwrap().cdf(negative_reports_today as f64)) < alpha {
return true;
}
} else {
// Consider the bridge blocked negative reports increase by
// more than 1 after a long static period. (Note that the
// mean is the exact value because we had no deviation.)
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + 1.0 {
return true;
}
}
// If we have 0 standard deviation or a covariance matrix that // Evaluate based on bridge stats and positive reports.
// is not positive definite, we need another way to evaluate let (mean_vec, cov_mat) = Self::stats(&[bridge_ips, positive_reports]);
// each variable let mvn = MultivariateNormal::new(mean_vec, cov_mat);
let positive_test = if mvn.is_ok() { if mvn.is_ok() {
let mvn = mvn.unwrap(); let mvn = mvn.unwrap();
// Estimate the CDF by integrating the PDF by hand with step // Estimate the CDF by integrating the PDF by hand with step
@ -380,27 +399,27 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
cdf += mvn.pdf(&DVector::from_vec(vec![bip as f64, pr as f64])); cdf += mvn.pdf(&DVector::from_vec(vec![bip as f64, pr as f64]));
} }
} }
cdf < alpha if cdf < alpha {
return true;
}
} else { } else {
// Ignore positive reports and compute as in stage 2 // If we have 0 standard deviation or a covariance matrix
self.stage_two( // that is not positive definite, we need another way to
// evaluate each variable. Ignore positive reports and
// compute as in stage 2
if self.stage_two(
confidence, confidence,
bridge_ips, bridge_ips,
bridge_ips_today, bridge_ips_today,
negative_reports, negative_reports,
negative_reports_today, negative_reports_today,
) ) {
}; return true;
let nr_test = if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 { }
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
(1.0 - nr_normal.unwrap().cdf(negative_reports_today as f64)) < alpha
} else {
// Consider the bridge blocked negative reports increase by
// more than 1 after a long static period. (Note that the
// mean is the exact value because we had no deviation.)
(negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean + 1.0
}; };
positive_test || nr_test // If none of the tests concluded that the bridge is blocked,
// return false
false
} }
} }

328
src/simulation/user.rs
View File

@ -26,6 +26,9 @@ pub struct User {
// Does the user submit reports to Troll Patrol? // Does the user submit reports to Troll Patrol?
submits_reports: bool, submits_reports: bool,
// How likely is this user to use bridges on a given day?
prob_use_bridges: f64,
} }
impl User { impl User {
@ -63,12 +66,17 @@ impl User {
cc cc
}; };
// Randomly determine how likely this user is to use bridges on
// a given day
let prob_use_bridges = rng.gen_range(0.0..=1.0);
Self { Self {
censor: censor, censor: censor,
country: cc, country: cc,
primary_cred: cred, primary_cred: cred,
secondary_cred: None, secondary_cred: None,
submits_reports: submits_reports, submits_reports: submits_reports,
prob_use_bridges: prob_use_bridges,
} }
} }
@ -127,12 +135,17 @@ impl User {
cc cc
}; };
// Randomly determine how likely this user is to use bridges on
// a given day
let prob_use_bridges = rng.gen_range(0.0..=1.0);
Ok(Self { Ok(Self {
censor: censor, censor: censor,
country: cc, country: cc,
primary_cred: friend_cred, primary_cred: friend_cred,
secondary_cred: None, secondary_cred: None,
submits_reports: submits_reports, submits_reports: submits_reports,
prob_use_bridges: prob_use_bridges,
}) })
} }
@ -179,180 +192,189 @@ impl User {
// newly invited friends and a vector of fingerprints of successfully // newly invited friends and a vector of fingerprints of successfully
// contacted bridges. // contacted bridges.
pub async fn daily_tasks(&mut self, state: &State) -> (Vec<User>, Vec<[u8; 20]>) { pub async fn daily_tasks(&mut self, state: &State) -> (Vec<User>, Vec<[u8; 20]>) {
// Download bucket to see if bridge is still reachable // Probabilistically decide if the user should use bridges today
// (We assume that this step can be done even if the user can't actually let mut rng = rand::thread_rng();
// talk to the LA.) let num: f64 = rng.gen_range(0.0..1.0);
let (bucket, reachcred) = get_bucket(&state.net, &self.primary_cred).await; if num < self.prob_use_bridges {
let level = scalar_u32(&self.primary_cred.trust_level).unwrap(); // Download bucket to see if bridge is still reachable
// (We assume that this step can be done even if the user can't actually
// talk to the LA.)
let (bucket, reachcred) = get_bucket(&state.net, &self.primary_cred).await;
let level = scalar_u32(&self.primary_cred.trust_level).unwrap();
// Can we level up the main credential? // Can we level up the main credential?
let can_level_up = reachcred.is_some() let can_level_up = reachcred.is_some()
&& (level == 0 && eligible_for_trust_promotion(&state.net, &self.primary_cred).await && (level == 0
|| level > 0 && eligible_for_level_up(&state.net, &self.primary_cred).await); && eligible_for_trust_promotion(&state.net, &self.primary_cred).await
|| level > 0 && eligible_for_level_up(&state.net, &self.primary_cred).await);
// Can we migrate the main credential? // Can we migrate the main credential?
let can_migrate = reachcred.is_none() && level >= MIN_TRUST_LEVEL; let can_migrate = reachcred.is_none() && level >= MIN_TRUST_LEVEL;
// Can we level up the secondary credential? // Can we level up the secondary credential?
let mut second_level_up = false; let mut second_level_up = false;
let mut failed = Vec::<BridgeLine>::new(); let mut failed = Vec::<BridgeLine>::new();
let mut succeeded = Vec::<BridgeLine>::new(); let mut succeeded = Vec::<BridgeLine>::new();
for i in 0..bucket.len() { for i in 0..bucket.len() {
// At level 0, we only have 1 bridge // At level 0, we only have 1 bridge
if level > 0 || i == 0 { if level > 0 || i == 0 {
if self.connect(&bucket[i]) { if self.connect(&bucket[i]) {
succeeded.push(bucket[i]); succeeded.push(bucket[i]);
} else {
failed.push(bucket[i]);
}
}
}
let second_cred = if succeeded.len() < 1 {
if self.secondary_cred.is_some() {
std::mem::replace(&mut self.secondary_cred, None)
} else { } else {
failed.push(bucket[i]); // Get new credential
} let cred = get_lox_credential(
} &state.net,
} &get_open_invitation(&state.net).await,
let second_cred = if succeeded.len() < 1 { get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
if self.secondary_cred.is_some() { )
std::mem::replace(&mut self.secondary_cred, None) .await
} else { .0;
// Get new credential Some(cred)
let cred = get_lox_credential(
&state.net,
&get_open_invitation(&state.net).await,
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
)
.await
.0;
Some(cred)
}
} else {
// If we're able to connect with the primary credential, don't
// keep a secondary one.
None
};
if second_cred.is_some() {
let second_cred = second_cred.as_ref().unwrap();
let (second_bucket, second_reachcred) = get_bucket(&state.net, &second_cred).await;
if self.connect(&second_bucket[0]) {
succeeded.push(second_bucket[0]);
if second_reachcred.is_some()
&& eligible_for_trust_promotion(&state.net, &second_cred).await
{
second_level_up = true;
} }
} else { } else {
failed.push(second_bucket[0]); // If we're able to connect with the primary credential, don't
} // keep a secondary one.
} None
};
let mut negative_reports = Vec::<NegativeReport>::new(); if second_cred.is_some() {
let mut positive_reports = Vec::<PositiveReport>::new(); let second_cred = second_cred.as_ref().unwrap();
if self.submits_reports { let (second_bucket, second_reachcred) = get_bucket(&state.net, &second_cred).await;
for bridge in &failed { if self.connect(&second_bucket[0]) {
negative_reports.push(NegativeReport::from_bridgeline( succeeded.push(second_bucket[0]);
*bridge, if second_reachcred.is_some()
self.country.to_string(), && eligible_for_trust_promotion(&state.net, &second_cred).await
BridgeDistributor::Lox, {
)); second_level_up = true;
} }
if level >= 3 { } else {
for bridge in &succeeded { failed.push(second_bucket[0]);
positive_reports.push(
PositiveReport::from_lox_credential(
bridge.fingerprint,
None,
&self.primary_cred,
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
self.country.to_string(),
)
.unwrap(),
);
} }
} }
}
// We might restrict these steps to succeeded.len() > 0, but we do let mut negative_reports = Vec::<NegativeReport>::new();
// assume the user can contact the LA somehow, so let's just allow it. let mut positive_reports = Vec::<PositiveReport>::new();
if can_level_up { if self.submits_reports {
let cred = level_up( for bridge in &failed {
&state.net, negative_reports.push(NegativeReport::from_bridgeline(
&self.primary_cred, *bridge,
&reachcred.unwrap(), self.country.to_string(),
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), BridgeDistributor::Lox,
get_reachability_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), ));
) }
.await; if level >= 3 {
self.primary_cred = cred; for bridge in &succeeded {
self.secondary_cred = None; positive_reports.push(
} PositiveReport::from_lox_credential(
// We favor starting over at level 1 to migrating bridge.fingerprint,
else if second_level_up { None,
let second_cred = second_cred.as_ref().unwrap(); &self.primary_cred,
let cred = trust_migration( get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
&state.net, self.country.to_string(),
&second_cred, )
&trust_promotion(&state.net, &second_cred, get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys)).await, .unwrap(),
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), );
get_migration_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), }
) }
.await; }
self.primary_cred = cred;
self.secondary_cred = None; // We might restrict these steps to succeeded.len() > 0, but we do
} else if can_migrate { // assume the user can contact the LA somehow, so let's just allow it.
let cred = blockage_migration( if can_level_up {
&state.net, let cred = level_up(
&self.primary_cred,
&check_blockage(
&state.net, &state.net,
&self.primary_cred, &self.primary_cred,
&reachcred.unwrap(),
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
get_reachability_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
) )
.await, .await;
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), self.primary_cred = cred;
get_migration_pub(&state.la_pubkeys), self.secondary_cred = None;
) }
.await; // We favor starting over at level 1 to migrating
self.primary_cred = cred; else if second_level_up {
self.secondary_cred = None; let second_cred = second_cred.as_ref().unwrap();
} else if second_cred.is_some() { let cred = trust_migration(
// Couldn't connect with primary credential &state.net,
if succeeded.len() > 0 { &second_cred,
// Keep the second credential only if it's useful &trust_promotion(&state.net, &second_cred, get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys))
self.secondary_cred = second_cred; .await,
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
get_migration_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
)
.await;
self.primary_cred = cred;
self.secondary_cred = None;
} else if can_migrate {
let cred = blockage_migration(
&state.net,
&self.primary_cred,
&check_blockage(
&state.net,
&self.primary_cred,
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
)
.await,
get_lox_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
get_migration_pub(&state.la_pubkeys),
)
.await;
self.primary_cred = cred;
self.secondary_cred = None;
} else if second_cred.is_some() {
// Couldn't connect with primary credential
if succeeded.len() > 0 {
// Keep the second credential only if it's useful
self.secondary_cred = second_cred;
}
} }
}
if negative_reports.len() > 0 { if negative_reports.len() > 0 {
Self::send_negative_reports(&state, negative_reports).await; Self::send_negative_reports(&state, negative_reports).await;
} }
if positive_reports.len() > 0 { if positive_reports.len() > 0 {
Self::send_positive_reports(&state, positive_reports).await; Self::send_positive_reports(&state, positive_reports).await;
} }
// Invite friends if applicable // Invite friends if applicable
let invitations = scalar_u32(&self.primary_cred.invites_remaining).unwrap(); let invitations = scalar_u32(&self.primary_cred.invites_remaining).unwrap();
let mut new_friends = Vec::<User>::new(); let mut new_friends = Vec::<User>::new();
for _i in 0..invitations { for _i in 0..invitations {
let mut rng = rand::thread_rng(); let mut rng = rand::thread_rng();
let num: f64 = rng.gen_range(0.0..1.0); let num: f64 = rng.gen_range(0.0..1.0);
if num < state.prob_user_invites_friend { if num < state.prob_user_invites_friend {
match self.invite(&state).await { match self.invite(&state).await {
Ok(friend) => { Ok(friend) => {
// You really shouldn't push your friends, especially // You really shouldn't push your friends, especially
// new ones whose boundaries you might not know well. // new ones whose boundaries you might not know well.
new_friends.push(friend); new_friends.push(friend);
} }
Err(e) => { Err(e) => {
println!("{}", e); println!("{}", e);
}
} }
} }
} }
}
// List of fingerprints we contacted. This should not actually be more // List of fingerprints we contacted. This should not actually be more
// than one. // than one.
let mut connections = Vec::<[u8; 20]>::new(); let mut connections = Vec::<[u8; 20]>::new();
for bridge in succeeded { for bridge in succeeded {
connections.push(bridge.get_hashed_fingerprint()); connections.push(bridge.get_hashed_fingerprint());
} }
(new_friends, connections) (new_friends, connections)
} else {
(Vec::<User>::new(), Vec::<[u8; 20]>::new())
}
} }
} }