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troll-patrol
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Only use CDF tests if today's numbers are worse than average

This commit is contained in:
Vecna 2024-05-27 17:47:02 -04:00
parent 788f1f7f21
commit 11bedfb74a
1 changed files with 81 additions and 64 deletions
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19
src/analysis.rs
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@ -311,6 +311,9 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
// Evaluate based on negative reports
let (negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(negative_reports);
// Only use CCDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean {
let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd);
if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
@ -326,9 +329,13 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
return true;
}
}
}
// Evaluate based on bridge stats
let (bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(bridge_ips);
// Only use CDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
if (bridge_ips_today as f64) < bridge_ips_mean {
let bip_normal = Normal::new(bridge_ips_mean, bridge_ips_sd);
if bridge_ips_sd > 0.0 {
if bip_normal.unwrap().cdf(bridge_ips_today as f64) < alpha {
@ -343,6 +350,7 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
return true;
}
}
}
// If none of the tests concluded that the bridge is blocked,
// return false
@ -370,6 +378,9 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
// negative reports test first because the positive test may be
// expensive.
let (negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd) = Self::mean_and_std_dev(negative_reports);
// Only use CCDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
if (negative_reports_today as f64) > negative_reports_mean {
let nr_normal = Normal::new(negative_reports_mean, negative_reports_sd);
if negative_reports_sd > 0.0 {
// We use CCDF because more negative reports is worse.
@ -384,9 +395,14 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
return true;
}
}
}
// Evaluate based on bridge stats and positive reports.
let (mean_vec, cov_mat) = Self::stats(&[bridge_ips, positive_reports]);
// Only use CDF test if today's numbers are worse than average
if (bridge_ips_today as f64) < mean_vec[0] || (positive_reports_today as f64) < mean_vec[1]
{
let mvn = MultivariateNormal::new(mean_vec, cov_mat);
if mvn.is_ok() {
let mvn = mvn.unwrap();
@ -416,7 +432,8 @@ impl Analyzer for NormalAnalyzer {
) {
return true;
}
};
}
}
// If none of the tests concluded that the bridge is blocked,
// return false